Извините, Вегас, но Джим Харбо или Ник Сабан ни за что не пойдут в НФЛ.

Команды НФЛ больше, чем когда-либо, искали тренеров колледжей для заполнения вакансий главных тренеров. В каждом из последних трех сезонов как минимум один тренер переходил в НФЛ после многих лет работы на университетском уровне. Урбан Мейер — последний тренер колледжа, избравший этот путь, и хотя он вообще не тренировал футбол в течение двух лет до того, как стал главным тренером «Джексонвилля», его последняя работа все еще была в колледже. До Мейера это был Мэтт Рул из Бэйлора в «Каролина Пантерз» и Клифф Кингсбери из Техасского технологического института в «Аризона Кардиналс». Тренеры колледжей стали похвальным товаром, потребляющим культуру НФЛ, поэтому вполне логично, что букмекеры создают очереди для определенных тренеров колледжей, чтобы перейти в НФЛ.

Согласно OddsChecker , в слухах о тренерах НФЛ крутятся три тренера колледжей: Люк Фикелл из Цинциннати, Джим Харбо из Мичигана и Ник Сабан из Алабамы. Фикелл получает наиболее вероятные шансы +333, что означает 23,1-процентный шанс найти работу главного тренера в НФЛ. Харбо получает +350 шансов, или 22,2 процента шансов. Сабан указан в +800, или 11,3 процента.

Теперь, если вы похожи на меня, вы, вероятно, думаете: «А? Ник Сабан и Джим Харбо? Да, они отличные тренеры, но они не собираются в НФЛ». Эти шансы ни в коем случае не безумны, но перечисление Сабана и Харбо в качестве двух из трех наиболее вероятных тренеров колледжей, которые станут главными тренерами НФЛ, кажется по меньшей мере невероятным.

Короткое пребывание Сабана на посту главного тренера «Майами Дельфинс» в период с 2005 по 2006 год закончилось сезоном 6-10 и общим рекордом 15-17. В течение трех лет после возвращения на футбольную сцену колледжа Сабан выиграл национальный чемпионат. В настоящее время он зарабатывает почти 10 миллионов долларов в год, и у него есть бустер-клуб, который буквально расплачивается с его долгами . Он широко известен как главный тренер футбольной NCAA и неоднократно заявлял, что не хочет возвращаться в НФЛ .

Sure, there have been dozens of coaches who’ve said one thing and then turned on their word faster than Littlefinger on Game of Thrones (i.e.: Lincoln Riley and Brian Kelly), but Saban’s words seem more sincere. Maybe it’s because he’s actually spent time in the NFL and realized that it’s not what he loves. Maybe it’s because he has invested too much into the Alabama football program to turn away from it now. The point remains that Saban has shown zero interest in returning. He’s been there, done that. There’s no need to reopen old repressed memories of having to face Tom Brady and Bill Belichick twice every year.

Harbaugh makes more sense to return to the NFL on a surface level. Not only did he help the San Francisco 49ers reach Super Bowl XLVII, but Harbaugh also won the Coach of the Year Award in his inaugural season, a feat that he duplicated in college this year. He had a combined record of 44-19-1 across four seasons and never fell below .500. He’s also only been out of professional coaching since 2015. It’s been a while, but not nearly as long as it’s been for Nick Saban, so it’s likely he could make the transition without experiencing a long adjustment period. However, Harbaugh’s coaching style is much more fit for a collegiate setting.

Don’t get me wrong. There were dozens of problems with the 49ers organization at the time of his departure. There was dysfunction between Harbaugh and GM Trent Baalke as well as a tumultuous offseason in 2014 that saw 14 of the organization’s 25 most important people leave the team. However, another issue during Harbaugh’s time with the 49ers that often gets overlooked is how he pretty much lost the locker room in his fourth and final season.

Harbaugh ultimately denied that report and even blasted Deion Sanders for coming out with it. However, the report seemed truer and truer by the day. In the midst of an 8-8 season, Harbaugh’s popular team mantra “Who’s got it better than us? NOBODY!” seemed untrue and even somewhat patronizing after players looked at the standings. Harbaugh’s motivational tactics and demeanor became stale with some of the team’s veterans. His players had grown tired of him as their coach after just four years.

Wait a minute! Four years! That’s exactly the length of a typical collegiate athletic career. Sure, there are instances involving redshirts and medical redshirts that can allow a college athlete to be part of a university’s sports program for up to six years, but four years is the usual length of a college stay for most athletes. Harbaugh’s coaching style is fit for the collegiate level. That’s where his style works best. So, why would Harbaugh want to go back to the NFL the same year he reaches the college football playoff for the first time? The same year he records the biggest win of his collegiate coaching career, especially when making the move would require him to have to work with a General Manager and a President of Player Personnel again? That went over so well the first time, I’m shocked Harbaugh wasn’t dying to have even less control of his roster.

As a collegiate coach, Harbaugh has much more control over his team than he would as an NFL head coach. He likes control. He thrives on building his team the way he needs to. He doesn’t need that. He’s got it all at Michigan. In January, the university extended Harbaugh through 2025, and that was before he helped lead the Wolverines past Ohio State for the first time in ten years. He’s not going anywhere.

There are likely going to be a lot of open head coaching positions in the NFL this offseason. Matt Nagy, Mike Zimmer, Urban Meyer, Vic Fangio, even interim Raiders’ head coach Rich Bisaccia could all lose their jobs after the end of the regular season. It’s very likely that one or more college coaches get asked to become NFL head coaches. Harbaugh and Saban will likely get some offers as well, but there’s no way either of them will take them.

Don’t get it twisted. They’re both staying in college for now.