Вторжение России в Украину вынудило более 4,2 миллиона человек бежать в соседние страны — Польшу, Румынию, Молдову и другие страны.
Насилие России в отношении мирных жителей и нападения на города привели к тому, что еще 6,5 миллиона или более человек стали внутренне перемещенными лицами. Они покинули свои дома, но переехали в пределах Украины в другие районы, где они надеются быть в большей безопасности.
Россия и Украина время от времени проводят мирные переговоры . Президент Украины Владимир Зеленский заявил 4 апреля 2022 года, что переговоры будут продолжены, несмотря на то, что российские солдаты совершают массовые убийства мирных жителей в Буче, Украина.
Но нет никакой гарантии, что миллионы перемещенных украинцев захотят вернуться в свои дома даже после окончания войны.
Уроки, извлеченные из опыта людей, перемещенных в ходе других конфликтов, таких как Босния и Афганистан, дают представление о том, что может произойти с украинцами в конце боевых действий. Волна новых исследований в области социальных наук, в том числе моя собственная в качестве политолога, изучающая постконфликтные ситуации, показывает, что как только насилие прекращается, люди не всегда решают вернуться домой.
Время имеет значение
Несколько факторов влияют на выбор людей вернуться в места, откуда они бежали, или переселиться в другое место. Время, пожалуй, самое важное.
Исследования показывают , что поколения, выросшие в местах убежища, могут больше не хотеть возвращаться в место, которое когда-то было домом.
Чем быстрее будет разрешен украинский конфликт, тем больше вероятность того, что беженцы репатриируются или вернутся домой.
Over time, displaced people adapt to their changed circumstances. In the best case, they form new social networks and get work opportunities in their places of refuge.
But if governments legally stop refugees from seeking formal employment, their prospects for financial self-sufficiency are grim.
This is the situation in some countries with large refugee populations such as Bangladesh, where Rohingya refugees from Myanmar are forced to live in camps and are prohibited from working.
This would not be the reality for most Ukrainian refugees, however. Most of them are resettling in the European Union, where they can get a special temporary protected status that enables them to work, attend school and receive medical care for at least one and up to three years.
A Larger Refugee Crisis
Ukrainians add to the growing numbers of people who are forcibly displaced worldwide as a result of conflict or climate disasters.
In 2020, the last year with reported global statistics, there were 82.4 million forcibly displaced people worldwide, the highest figure in the past 20 years. Refugees, people who cross an international border seeking safety, make up 32 percent of that number. Internally displaced people are 58 percent of this total figure. The remainder are asylum seekers and Venezuelans displaced without legal recognition abroad.
There are three reasons for the increase in forcibly displaced people.
First, there are unresolved, persistent conflicts in both Afghanistan and Somalia that continue to force people to move.
The withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan in 2021 caused the latest mass movement of refugees.
A second cause of rising displacement is the recent start of conflicts in Ethiopia, Myanmar, South Sudan and elsewhere.
Third, fewer people caught up in war are returning home once the violence ends. The average length of time refugees stay away from their homes is five years, but averages can be misleading.
For those 5 to 7 million people in situations of protracted displacement — more than five years — the average duration of exile is 21.2 years.
Deciding to Go Home — or Not
A recent study of Sri Lankan refugee children raised in India because of the Sri Lankan Civil War from 1983 to 2009 found that some prefer staying in India, even though they are not citizens. These youths feel they could better integrate in India if they were not labeled as refugees.
Some studies have shown that experiences of violence in people's home countries diminishes their desire to return home. Other recent surveys of Syrian refugees in Lebanon show the opposite. These studies found that those who were exposed to violence in Syria — and had a sense of attachment to home — were more likely to want to return.
Age and the attachment to home that often comes with it also influence people's desire to return to their home country, making it more likely that older people will return.
Interestingly, this is also the case in some natural disasters. After Hurricane Katrina forced people to leave New Orleans in 2005, only half of adult residents under 40 later returned to the city. That's compared with two-thirds of those over 40 who chose to go home.
Rebuilding
Rebuilding houses, returning property that has been occupied by others and providing compensation for property losses during war are vital to encouraging people to return home after displacement.
This work is typically funded by the post-conflict government or international organizations like the World Bank and United Nations. People need places to live and are more likely to remain in places of refuge if they have no home to which they can return.
There are exceptions to this rule. Following ethnic conflicts, refugees and internally displaced people were unwilling to return to homes in ethnically mixed neighborhoods when peace returned in both Bosnia and Lebanon. They preferred to live in new communities, where they could be surrounded by people of their own ethnicity.
Not Just About Peace
Finally, it is not just peace, but political control that matters to people considering a return.
Nearly 5.7 million Syrian refugees remain in Lebanon, Jordan, Turkey and other countries after more than 11 years of war in their country. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has retained political power, and some parts of Syria have not seen active conflict since 2018. But it is still not safe for these refugees to return to live in Syria.
The economic situation in the country is dire. Assad's government and related militias still conduct kidnappings, torture and extrajudicial killings.
Even if Russia retreats and pulls its forces entirely out of Ukraine, some ethnic Russians who were living in Ukraine before the conflict are less likely to return there. Returns are most likely when the government and returnees are happy with the outcome and people are going back to their own country.
Russian violence in Ukraine has changed the fuzzy division between ethnic Russians and ethnic Ukrainians into a bright line. The comfortable coexistence of the two groups within Ukraine is unlikely to resume.
Sandra Joireman is the Weinstein Chair of International Studies, and a professor of political science at the University of Richmond in Richmond, Virginia. She receives funding from the University of Richmond, the Fulbright program and the Earhart Foundation.
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. You can find the original article here.
