Как работают ставки на спорт

Ставки на спорт являются незаконными на большей части территории Соединенных Штатов, распространены в большей части Европы и являются повседневной частью индустрии азартных игр в Неваде. Трудно подсчитать, сколько денег делается на спорт в Соединенных Штатах, поскольку большая часть из них делается нелегально, но эксперты оценивают «ручку» в более чем 200 миллиардов долларов в год [ ссылка ].

Галерея изображений казино

Простое размещение ставки может быть запутанным делом — у спортивных контор есть свой жаргон, и системы различаются. Выяснение того, как делать ставки достаточно хорошо, чтобы заработать немного денег, — это совсем другое дело. Как определяются шансы? Кто устанавливает линию? Какой процент времени вам нужно, чтобы выиграть, чтобы безубыточности?

В этой статье мы объясним важные элементы ставок и расчета шансов, проследим историю ставок в Соединенных Штатах и ​​покажем, почему ставки на спорт почти всегда приводят к потере денег в долгосрочной перспективе.

1. Основы ставок на спорт
2. Каковы шансы?
3. От чистокровных до Суперкубков
4. Скандалы

Различные виды спорта имеют разные системы для ставок и ставок. Существуют даже разные системы для одного и того же вида спорта, в зависимости от того, в какую игру хочет играть игрок. Но чтобы понять любую из этих систем, сначала нужно разобраться в жаргоне.

Действие . Действие — это просто действие ставок. Такие фразы, как «Я хочу участвовать в действии» или «Покажи мне, где происходит действие», происходят от этого термина. Поскольку ставки на спорт запрещены во многих странах, вы не всегда можете найти местного букмекера в телефонной книге.

Гандикап — в ставках на спорт «гандикап» означает предоставление одной команде преимущества в очках, чтобы уравнять поле для ставок.

Ручка - Ручка - это общая сумма денег, поставленная на ставки. Ставки на Суперкубок приносят большую прибыль в году для большинства букмекеров.

Букмекерская контора — заведение, принимающее ставки, также известное как книга. Человек, который принимает ставки, является букмекером.

Сок — это процент от всех ставок, принятый букмекером в качестве прибыли. Сок также известен как виг , сокращенно от энергичного. Иногда букмекеры берут прямой процент от ставки, но чаще в коэффициенты включается виг.

Разброс. Разброс очков используется в результативных видах спорта, таких как футбол и баскетбол . По сути, это фора, используемая для того, чтобы сделать все игры конкурентоспособными в глазах игроков. Разброс дает одной команде преимущество в несколько очков. Стандартное обозначение для распределения очков сначала показывает предпочитаемую команду, а затем отрицательное число (фактическое распределение). Команда хозяев указана заглавными буквами. Итак, если бы «Баффало» играли против «Грин-Бей» в «Грин-Бей» и у них было преимущество в семь очков, это выглядело бы так:

Если кто-то делает ставку на победу Баффало, то Баффало фактически должен выиграть более чем с семью очками, чтобы ставка окупилась. Это как если бы «Грин-Бей» вырвался вперед на семь очков в начале игры.

Денежная линия. В таких видах спорта, как бейсбол , набранные очки недостаточно высоки, чтобы использовать разброс очков. Вместо этого используется денежная линия. Список денежной линии может выглядеть так:

Иногда десятичная точка опускается, поэтому 120 равно 1,20. Если вы хотите сделать ставку на предпочитаемую команду, «Уайт Сокс», вы должны ставить 1,20 доллара на каждый 1 доллар, который хотите выиграть. Если вы хотите сделать ставку на аутсайдера Astros, вы должны ставить 1 доллар на каждые 1,10 доллара, которые хотите выиграть. Это известно как десятицентовая линия, потому что десять центов отделяют фаворита от проигравшего. Большинство букмекеров предлагают десятицентовую линию, хотя она может увеличиться до 20 центов или выше, если одна команда пользуется большим преимуществом.

Если денежная линия кажется запутанной, подумайте о ней как о простой системе ценообразования. Вы хотите выиграть определенную сумму денег на свою ставку. Шансы на то, что привилегированная команда выиграет игру, выше, поэтому ставка на фаворита, чтобы выиграть эту сумму, стоит больше, чем ставка на аутсайдера.

Вот пример: представьте, что, используя приведенную выше денежную линию с Уайт Сокс и Астрос, вы хотите выиграть около 100 долларов. Если вы сделаете ставку на привилегированный Уайт Сокс, вы заплатите букмекеру 120 долларов. Если вы выиграете, вы вернете свои 120 долларов плюс 100 долларов выигрыша. Если вы проиграете, букмекер удерживает ваши 120 долларов (технически букмекеры в большинстве случаев получают деньги за проигрышные ставки после игры, но в нашем примере мы будем считать, что ставка оплачена заранее). Если вы поставите 100 долларов на Астрос, вы получите 110 долларов выигрыша, если они выиграют, и потеряете только 100 долларов, если они проиграют.

Pick'em - Sometimes money line games will be listed as "pick" or "pick'em." This means that the teams are considered equal, and the line on both teams is -1.10. Betting on either team requires $1.10 per $1 in potential winnings [ref].

Pools, cards, and parlays - A parlay is just a combination bet. Instead of making five separate bets on five different games, the bettor places a single parlay bet, hoping he or she can predict the outcome of all five games. If any one of the games is a loser, the entire parlay is a loser. The payout is better for parlays, because the odds of successfully picking multiple winners are much tougher to beat [ref]. Most people are familiar with parlays through office betting pools or football cards. If you've ever paid $5 to select your winners from a list of that week's football games (sometimes using the spread, sometimes using the straight scores) in hopes of winning the weekly prize, then you have made an informal parlay bet. Office pools don't usually involve actual bookies beyond the person who organizes the pool, and no one takes juice from the pool. All the money is distributed to the winner or winners.

Next, we'll find out how oddsmakers set the line and figure out the spread.

Oddsmaker vs. Bookie

What's the difference between an oddsmaker and a bookie? A bookie's job is purely mechanical. He gets the line from Vegas or another source, offers bets at those odds, then collects money from the losers, pays out to the winners and keeps the vig. Oddsmakers don't actually take bets -- they study the games and set the lines. Bookies often adjust the spreads for their games, so they do a little oddsmaking, and oddsmakers work for casinos, which operate sports books that take bets.

The point spread for a football game or the money line for a baseball game are both referred to as "the line." The line is simply the odds for that particular game, translated into whatever system is used. When a big Las Vegas casino issues the first line on a game, it is known as the "opening line." Offshore sports books often issue a line before Vegas does, but the Vegas line is usually considered the most trustworthy.

Setting the line is a matter of intense research, carefully cultivated contacts, years of experience and plain old intuition. An oddsmaker's reputation is based on his accuracy, and he has many variables to consider when determining the odds:

Oddsmakers don't try to predict the outcome of the game when setting point spreads. If a team is favored by seven points, that doesn't mean that the oddsmaker necessarily thinks it will win by seven points. The oddsmaker's goal when setting the line is to keep an equal number of bets on both sides of the game. The betting public's perception of the game can be as important as the actual comparison of the two teams.

Why do oddsmakers try to keep the action even on both sides of a bet? A bookie's worst fear is being "sided." This happens when many bets come in on one side of a game. If that side turns out to be the winning side, the bookie will lose a lot of money. Ideally, half the bettors lose, and their money goes to pay off the other half, who won, with the bookie taking the vig.

Oddsmakers are so intent on keeping the action even that they actually move the line in response to betting patterns. If too many bets are coming in for the underdog, then that team might have been given too many points, so the line is moved. Bets made prior to the move are still counted at the old line. Some bettors will make additional bets after the line moves, on the opposite side of the game. This is known as middling. For example, let's say the opening line on a football game is Tampa Bay -7; SAN FRANCISCO. A lot of people might think Tampa Bay will beat San Francisco by more than seven points, so they all bet on Tampa. The oddsmaker sees this pattern and moves the line, giving Tampa -10. Now, Tampa has to win by more than ten points for bets placed on Tampa to win. A bettor can place another bet with the new line, this time on San Francisco. If Tampa wins the game by eight points, the bettor has middled -- he's won on both bets.

Sometimes a single well-known gambler can force oddsmakers to move the line. When one of these gamblers makes a bet, a lot of people pay attention and bet the same way, because he has a reputation for winning frequently. This can draw so much action to one side of the bet that the oddsmaker must move the line.

Often oddsmakers will move the line independently of the Vegas line in response to local betting patterns. Over time, they gain experience in setting the odds themselves. If they develop a reputation for setting accurate lines, they might be hired by one of the Las Vegas casinos, the only places that can legally hire oddsmakers in the United States.

Next, we'll check out the history of betting on sporting events.

Team Effort and Becoming an Oddsmaker

It is rare for an individual oddsmaker to set a line by himself. Most sports books employ teams of oddsmakers who meet with each other and pool their knowledge before they agree on a line.

Becoming an oddsmaker isn't easy -- there are no oddsmaker schools. Plenty of books describe handicapping and oddsmaking, but the only way to get an actual job as an oddsmaker is to have lots of experience. All oddsmakers used to be gamblers and/or bookies. Some of them learned the business from relatives, while others just hung out at old sawdust rooms and pool houses, learning everything they could about the game. They watch sports constantly, read dozens of newspapers, and have friends and contacts around the country to provide detailed information on every team and every game.

People have been informally betting on sports just about as long as there have been sporting events. Organized sports betting took off in the United States at the horse racing tracks that sprang up in the 1800s. Betting really caught on in the early 1900s when the pastime became more accessible to the middle and lower classes. At first, an auction system was used. Bettors bid on a lot that represented one horse in a given race. In this system, the bettors themselves automatically set the odds. Each bettor was vying for the full pot, and whoever had the lot for the winning horse got it. Horses that were highly favored to win were auctioned off at much higher prices, since the holder of that lot had the best chance of winning the pot. Lower-rated horses allowed bettors to take a chance at the pot for a smaller bet with a reduced chance of winning.

The auction system was limited because you could only take bets for the number of horses in each race. While some bookies opened multiple auctions on a single race, they still missed out on a lot of handle. The solution was to offer odds on each horse. Longer odds (like 50-1) meant a higher payout but a lower chance of winning. Horses given better odds were more likely to win but paid out at a lower rate (5-1, for example).

A similar system was used in other sporting events, such as boxing and early football games. It was hard for oddsmakers to set the odds accurately, and when a long-shot team came up with an upset win, bookies lost a bundle. Around World War II, the point spread concept was developed [ref]. This made betting on sports even more popular. The broadcast of sports on TV kept the cycle going -- sports became more popular, which made betting more popular, which made some people enjoy sports more.

Next we'll learn about some of the betting scandals that have plagued sports.

Vegas, Baby

Sports betting hasn't always been legal in Nevada. Once the state legalized it, bookies were required to pay a ten percent tax. Some switched to a 12/10 vig to keep their profits healthy, but over time the tax was reduced to less than one percent. The Vegas action used to take place in smoky back rooms, filled with anxious bettors watching chalk boards for the latest line. Then casinos got into the sports betting business, opening plush betting parlors with video screens and free drinks.

Some people oppose sports betting because it can have an effect on the games themselves. The number of scandals related to gambling in the 20th century alone numbers in the dozens.

Before point spreads, it was risky for a gambler to attempt to manipulate a game. He had to find a player who was willing to lose the game in return for a bribe. But although it was risky, manipulation happened often. In the early 1900s, gambling was a well-known, if not well-liked, part of professional baseball. Gamblers gathered in one section of the stands, placing bets on everything from the winner of the game to the outcome of the next pitch.

This control came to the public's attention in 1919, when the Chicago White Sox lost the World Series to the inferior Cincinnati Reds. By the start of the next season, it was revealed that eight White Sox players had been bribed up to $10,000 each to make sure that their team lost the series. These eight players became known as the "eight men out." Although they were eventually acquitted of criminal charges, none of them ever played professional baseball again.

Point spreads lead to a more subtle kind of manipulation -- point shaving. College basketball is particularly susceptible to this practice. If a team is favored by eight points, gamblers don't have to bribe players to lose the entire game. They just have to convince them to win it by less than eight points.

Football has been the target of point shaving efforts as well. It has long been rumored that the final outcome of the 1958 NFL championship game was affected by substantial bets (as much as $1 million) that the owner of the Baltimore Colts had placed on his team. The Colts were favored by three or four points. In overtime, the team was in a position for an easy field goal, which would have won them the game by three points. Instead, they kept trying for a touchdown, which they eventually made, winning the championship and covering the spread [ref]. No real evidence was ever found that the owner actually influenced the plays called on the field.

One of the most famous betting scandals of recent decades involved former all-star baseball player and successful manager Pete Rose, who compiled a 412-373 won/loss record managing the Cincinnati Reds. In 1989, investigations revealed that he had made dozens of bets for up to $10,000 on baseball games, including betting on his own team. He was subsequently banned from baseball for life.

For lots more information on sports betting and related topics, check out the links on the next page.

The Bookie's Advantage

A common question about sports betting is, "Can I make money betting on sports?" The answer is simple: no. Some bettors get lucky in the short term, but over a long series of bets, the gambler will almost always lose money. The reason is the 11/10 vig, a built-in advantage that guarantees the bookie will make money. Every time you bet on a point spread game, you must bet $11 for every $10 in potential winnings. If you bet $110 and win, you win $100 (your total return is $210 -- your original bet plus the winnings). On average, you have to win 52.38 percent of the time just to break even [ref]. The famous gambler Lem Banker once referred to this as "the implacable reality of 11-to-10" [ref]. It's difficult to win 52.38 percent of the time. If you bet steadily for several years, all you're likely to accomplish is sending your bookie's kids to college.

Professional gamblers seem to make a good living on sports betting, but there are very few of them. Most people can't earn six figures by watching football. If you consider the entire sports betting population as one statistical sample, it is inevitable that a few individuals will have better than expected success, just as a few people will have unexpectedly horrible luck. You don't usually hear about those gamblers, however.

Originally Published: Nov 16, 2005

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