10 Tanda Ekonomi Membaik

Meskipun beberapa ekonom menyatakan resesi terakhir pada Juni 2009, krisis hipotek, harga gas yang berfluktuasi , pasar saham yang goyah, dan masalah ekonomi kompleks lainnya terus menyeret AS dan ekonomi global. Awal tahun 2011, bagaimanapun, telah menunjukkan tanda-tanda harapan bagi pengamat pasar. Penjualan komersial sedang meningkat dan pengangguran agak turun.

Ekonom dan analis keuangan dapat memprediksi beberapa fluktuasi pasar ini, tetapi ekonomi seperti mesin yang sangat kompleks yang tidak memiliki panduan pemilik. Ada begitu banyak variabel dan faktor yang mempengaruhi jaringan ekonomi dunia yang saling berhubungan secara mendalam sehingga bahkan ekonom yang paling berpengalaman pun hanya dapat mengambil upaya terdidik dalam ramalan fiskal. Alih-alih membaca daun teh atau mencari tanda-tanda di bintang-bintang, kita dapat mencari bukti pemulihan ekonomi yang nyata. Berikut adalah 10 tanda bahwa ekonomi AS mendapatkan kembali tanah yang hilang selama resesi.

1. Kenaikan Penjualan Peralatan Mahal
2. Harga Rumah Tidak Lagi Terjun Bebas
3. Penjualan Periklanan Tumbuh
4. Produksi Pabrik Meningkat
5. Rekam Laba Perusahaan
6. Pemulihan Penjualan Ritel
7. Pengangguran Mungkin Menurun
8. Pekerjaan Mendapat … Perlahan
9. Dolar yang Lemah
10. Ekonom Mengatakan Ini Meningkat

Setiap peningkatan penjualan adalah tanda positif bagi perekonomian, tetapi penjualan peralatan kelas atas sangat penting. Di sektor teknologi, server besar dan peralatan elektronik mahal lainnya telah meningkat. Pembelian alat tes kesehatan khusus oleh rumah sakit dan laboratorium juga meningkat dari akhir tahun 2010 hingga awal tahun 2011.

Jenis peningkatan penjualan ini penting bukan hanya karena menunjukkan bahwa perusahaan memiliki kepercayaan finansial yang cukup untuk melakukan pembelian besar, tetapi juga karena menunjukkan peningkatan besar dalam kegiatan ekonomi secara keseluruhan. Perusahaan yang memproduksi peralatan mahal ini memiliki pesanan baru yang memungkinkan mereka untuk berkembang, atau setidaknya mempekerjakan kembali pekerja yang diberhentikan selama penurunan. Pembeli memiliki aliran pendapatan baru karena lebih banyak pelanggan menggunakan peralatan baru mereka.

Dari mana data tentang peningkatan pembelian ini berasal? Dari perusahaan yang paling mungkin diperhatikan: perusahaan pelayaran khusus. Mesin MRI atau generator besar yang mempertahankan aliran daya ke server farm tidak bisa begitu saja dimuat ke dalam van yang bergerak -- mereka harus dikemas dengan hati-hati dan diangkut oleh para ahli untuk menghindari kerusakan. Industri perkapalan khusus menunjukkan banyak kepercayaan pada transportasi industri skala besar pada tahun 2011 [sumber: PRWeb ]. Laporan lain menunjukkan pertumbuhan 0,9 persen dalam pembuatan peralatan bisnis, komputer dan semikonduktor [sumber: Chandra & Kowalski ].

Menurut Brookings Institution, pada kuartal ketiga 2010, harga perumahan naik di 80 dari 100 wilayah metropolitan terbesar di AS, dan naik 0,6 persen secara keseluruhan di antara 100 kota tersebut. Meski kecil, namun signifikan karena masing-masing dari 100 kota tersebut mengalami penurunan harga rumah selama tiga kuartal sebelumnya [sumber: Wial & Shearer ].

Harga rumah merupakan indikator penting dari pemulihan ekonomi secara umum karena, bagi kebanyakan orang Amerika, sebagian besar kekayaan mereka terkait dengan nilai rumah mereka. Ini mungkin menjadi lebih penting sebagai tanda pemulihan saat ini karena Resesi Hebat terkait erat dengan keruntuhan pasar perumahan.

Banyak ekonomi kita terkait dengan periklanan. Lihatlah majalah, televisi , olahraga profesional, surat kabar lokal, situs internet dan sejenisnya: Kita sering menerima begitu saja bahwa hal-hal ini terutama didanai oleh iklan. Pada 2009, belanja iklan di AS turun 7 persen dan tumbuh hanya 1,5 persen pada 2010. Ketika belanja iklan melambat, hal itu melumpuhkan sebagian besar perekonomian.

Industri periklanan tidak mengharapkan perubahan haluan yang menakjubkan, tetapi analis memperkirakan peningkatan 2,5 persen dalam penjualan iklan AS pada 2011 -- yang tentunya merupakan peningkatan -- dan pertumbuhan 9 persen hingga 2013. Meskipun ini bukan pertumbuhan yang spektakuler, ini jauh lebih baik dari penurunan [sumber: McClellan ].

Manufacturing makes up roughly 13 percent of the U.S. economy. That's significant, but in some nations, manufacturing represents 20 percent or more of the total gross domestic product (GDP) [source: U.N.]. Gains and losses in manufacturing can often be felt more keenly than even these numbers would suggest, since a shuttered factory can cripple the economy of an entire city or region. Ask the citizens of Detroit.

With that in mind, news that the Ford Motor Company plans to increase factory production by 13 percent in response to a 27 percent increase in the number of individual buyers in January of 2011 is a very good sign for the economy [source: Krisher]. General Motors also reported record profits in 2010 as well [source: Bunkley].The big picture looks rosy as well: In mid-February, the Federal Reserve reported a 0.3 percent increase in U.S. manufacturing output [source: Chandra & Kowalski].

Standard & Poor's 500 Index shows 2010 was the third-best year for corporations since 1998. Even adjusted for inflation , corporate profits were much more robust in 2010 than in 2009, showing a 17 percent increase. This figure excludes financial corporations, who had such a terrible 2009 that they'd make those profits look artificially huge if they were included [source: Shipman & Vigna].

If you believe that vast corporate profits will inevitably "trickle down " to enrich other parts of the U.S. economy, then this is purely good news. While there's plenty of debate over whether corporate profits really do help the economy, they're almost certainly better than large-scale corporate losses.

Eventually, economic downturns make their way to the average spender. Consumer confidence falls as people save more and spend less in fear of even worse times to come. Reduced consumer spending hurts retailers, which hurts retail employees, who represent another big chunk of the economy. So an increase in retail sales is a good sign that the recovery is affecting all levels of the economy.

The good news: the National Retail Federation's 2011 economic forecast predicts a 4 percent increase in retail sales. Retail growth has enjoyed seven months of continual growth, and retailers had a pretty good 2010 holiday shopping season , so things are looking moderately optimistic on that front [source: Grannis].

High unemployment numbers are a sure sign of a terrible economic situation. People who aren't working aren't earning money, producing goods or spending money, and they're likely surviving on government subsidies. It's a good sign that the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a decline in unemployment levels in January 2011, dropping to 9 percent from 9.4 percent in December 2010. The February jobs report was even better, with the unemployment rate dropping to 8.9 percent -- the lowest levels in nearly a year [source: CNNMoney.com].

Unfortunately, a different survey, this one by Gallup, indicates an increase in unemployment from 9.8 percent to 10 percent [source: Xuequan]. Gallup uses their own polling methods, separate from the government 's statistics.

Is this good news or bad? Well, at least it's close enough for debate. From Oct. 2007 to Jan. 2010 unemployment rose from 4.4 percent to 10.6 percent [source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics]. Whichever numbers you trust, at least things are nowhere near that bad.

The U.S. Department of Labor's January 2011 jobs report wasn't especially exciting. On top of the questionable reduction in unemployment , the U.S. only added 36,000 jobs that month.

This is a positive sign, though -- another case of small gains being a lot better than huge losses. For example, the U.S. economy lost 39,000 jobs in January 2010, and suffered losses in June, July, August and September 2010. Plus, some economists think a wave of serious winter weather hampered job growth in January 2011 [source: Censky]. The February jobs report proved them right, showing a sharp rebound as the unemployment rate dropped to 8.9 percent and the economy added 192,000 jobs [source: Klein].

The U.S. dollar hasn't been this weak in decades. That means that a U.S. dollar is worth less compared to other currencies. In 2002, the cost of one Euro was about 86 cents -- representing a strong dollar [source: Weiner]. Today, that Euro will cost roughly $1.37 [source: Zhou]. In practical terms, that means that things in Europe (or made there) are more expensive for Americans, while American goods are cheaper for Europeans.

A weak dollar has a lot of economic effects, not all of them good. In fact, if you want to start a fight among a group of economists, ask them if a weak dollar is good or bad for the economy.

That said, we're looking for positive signs, and one of the beneficial things about a weak dollar is that it helps American manufacturers. When their products become less expensive for the rest of the world, they can export more goods, boosting sales and their overall bottom line. The influx of foreign money can help fuel economic recovery.

In early 2011, economists noted that the chances of a double-dip recession were slim, and that the economy seemed to be gaining strength on its own merits, not on the back of government stimulus. The majority of economists surveyed felt that, despite weak areas, the U.S. economy was poised for modest growth [source: Izzo].

Why do we care what economists think? With the economy, perception is almost as important as reality. Whether or not someone invests in your business or builds a factory in your country is based largely on how they perceive the strength of your economy. Rosy projections by economists won't fix a troubled economy, but they help encourage investors when the economy is going through a genuine recovery.

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